MISFITS & MACHINES · PARTNERSHIP DEAL MEMO 01

The Shopify
Deal

The first platform partnership for Misfits & Machines, structured before day one. A full deal architecture: the wedge, the economics, the competitive counter, the pilot, and the path to a signed LOI inside year one.

Misfits should not fight MNTN, Vibe, and tvScientific for SMB advertisers one at a time. It should become the TV layer inside the platform that already owns millions of them.
PREPARED BY REHAN SAJID FOR CHUCK HENGEL & JORDAN MAUER JUNE 2026 LAYER 2 OF: ANALYZELENS.COM/MISFITS-MACHINES
01 · The Wedge Thesis

Why Shopify says yes

The partnership MAP scored every embedded-channel platform on advertiser density, channel gap, embed path, and deal economics. Shopify won on all four. Here is the deal logic underneath that score.

$0B
Shopify GMV in 2025, with over $100B in Q1 2026 alone1
0
Estimated live Shopify stores worldwide, roughly 2.6M in the US2
$0B
Projected US CTV ad spend in 2026, the fastest-growing major channel8
0%
Of SMBs running CTV in 2025 had never advertised on TV before9
DRIVER A

Advertiser density

Shopify aggregates millions of SMB and DTC merchants who already buy Meta and Google performance ads as a reflex.2 They are the exact buyer profile reallocating 15 to 20 percent of digital budgets toward CTV.9 No other platform concentrates more TV-ready advertisers behind one login.

DRIVER B

The channel gap

Shopify has email, SEO, and social channels in its marketing surface, plus a 21,000-app ecosystem.4 It has no native TV demand product. The 2023 Roku tie-up made Shopify the checkout inside Roku's ads.10 Nobody has built the reverse: TV as a channel merchants buy from inside Shopify.

DRIVER C

The creative unlock

The reason embedded TV has never existed for SMBs: a merchant with no creative team cannot make a TV spot. Marketing Architects' LoRA creative stack generates on-brand TV video from curated brand assets,11 and Annika buys and optimizes the media. Misfits is the only player holding both halves.

The product is one sentence: a TV button inside Shopify.

A merchant clicks "Promote on TV" in the admin. LoRA models trained on their storefront and catalog generate broadcast-grade creative in minutes. Annika buys streaming inventory against their first-party commerce data. Orders flow back as ground-truth attribution. The merchant never leaves Shopify, never hires an agency, never shoots a commercial. That is a product no standalone DSP can copy, because the moat is the embed plus the creative stack, not the media buying.

02 · The Economics

What this deal is worth

A live model. Verified anchors set the defaults, every projection input is labeled as an assumption with its rationale. Drag the inputs or use the presets. The math is shown in full below the outputs.

A $27.0M per year embedded TV business inside Shopify.

Misfits gross margin per year at current inputs. This figure updates live.

1,000,000
US-listed live stores are estimated near 2.6M.2 This slider models the subset realistically addressable: active, revenue-generating merchants already running paid ads.
0.30%
Share of reachable merchants who activate TV. For scale: MNTN built roughly 2,225 customers through direct sales by 2024.5 A native button in front of a million ad-active merchants needs well under 1% to beat that.
$2,500
Anchors: Vibe's entry floor is about $50 per day (roughly $1.5K per month) with $15 to $30 CPMs;6 MNTN recommends $10K to $20K per month for scale.5 Default sits at the entry tier.
30%
Assumption. Self-serve ad platforms typically operate take rates in the 25 to 35 percent band on managed media. Annika's owned buying and AI creative push Misfits toward the top of that band.
15%
Verified mechanic: Shopify takes 0% of a developer's first $1M in lifetime app revenue (from Jan 2025) and 15% above it.3 The model applies this to Misfits' gross margin booked through Shopify billing.
Misfits gross margin / year
$27.0M
After media costs, before Shopify's share
Advertisers acquired
3,000
Merchants actively running TV
Gross media volume / year
$90.0M
TV spend flowing through the embed
Shopify's cut / year
$3.9M
New high-margin revenue line for the partner
Misfits net of Shopify share
$23.1M
Retained gross margin / year
The math, in full
1,000,000 merchants × 0.30% attach = 3,000 advertisers
3,000 × $2,500/mo × 12 = $90.0M gross media
$90.0M × 30% margin = $27.0M Misfits gross margin
($27.0M - $1M exemption) × 15% = $3.9M to Shopify
Input provenance: verified fact vs. modeled assumption
FactUS store base ~2.6MThird-party tracking estimates of live US Shopify stores; Shopify itself reports "millions of merchants" across 175+ countries and stopped publishing exact counts in 2021.2 Reachable-base slider is the modeled subset.
FactRev-share mechanics0% on first $1M lifetime app revenue (post Jan 1, 2025), 15% above, per Shopify's published developer terms.3
FactSpend anchorsVibe: no minimum, ~$50/day floor, $15 to $30 CPMs.6 MNTN: $10K to $20K/mo recommended.5 tvScientific: no minimum, outcome-priced.7
AssumptionAttach rateNo public embedded-TV attach benchmark exists (the product does not exist yet, that is the point). Range is deliberately sub-1% in all presets, sanity-checked against MNTN's ~2,225 direct-sold customers.5
AssumptionPlatform margin25 to 35% take-rate band typical of self-serve media platforms; not a disclosed Misfits figure.
AssumptionSteady-state framingOutputs model an annualized steady state after ramp, not year-one revenue. Ramp is covered in the 12-month path below.
03 · The Competitive Counter

They are not partners. They are the field.

The self-serve CTV lane is already crowded with well-funded players chasing the same SMB advertiser one expensive sale at a time. Misfits should not out-DSP the DSPs. It should out-position them by owning the surface they all have to advertise their way into.

MNTN Competitor
Self-serve Performance TV. NYSE-listed May 2025.
  • 96% of customer base is SMB, client count up 89% YoY in Q1 20255
  • ~2,225 Performance TV customers in 20245
  • Recommends $10K to $20K monthly, pricing out the long tail5
  • Creative via QuickFrame marketplace, not auto-generated from the merchant's own store
Vibe.co Competitor
No-minimum self-serve streaming ads for SMBs.
  • No minimums, ~$50/day floor, $15 to $30 CPMs6
  • $22.5M Series A (2024), later $50M raise, ~$410M valuation6
  • Wins the price floor but still requires the merchant to find it, learn it, and bring creative
tvScientific Competitor
Outcome-priced Performance TV. Roku-backed.
  • $25.5M Series B (Feb 2025), Roku on the cap table, ~$57M total raised7
  • No minimum spend, cost-per-outcome pricing7
  • Pinterest acquisition interest reported, signaling platforms want performance CTV capability7

ALSO IN THE LANE: Viant, StackAdapt, Tatari, Simulmedia. All demand-side, all standalone, all acquiring advertisers one at a time.

Standalone DSP vs. embedded TV layer

Standalone self-serve DSP
(MNTN, Vibe, tvScientific)
Misfits inside Shopify
How the merchant arrives×Paid acquisition, outbound sales, brand spend. CAC in the hundreds to thousands per advertiser.✓Native surface in the admin merchants open every day. Marginal CAC approaches zero at platform scale.
Onboarding×New account, new platform, new attribution pixel, new learning curve.✓One-click app install. Store, catalog, and customer data prefill the campaign.
Creative×Merchant supplies a finished spot or buys one through a creative marketplace. The single biggest dropout point for SMBs.✓LoRA models trained on the merchant's brand generate on-brand TV creative automatically.11 No competitor pairs an embed with instant creative.
Targeting & measurement×Pixel-based, modeled attribution bolted onto someone else's commerce data.✓First-party Shopify commerce data in, actual orders out. TV measured like a performance channel because it is wired into the checkout.
Media engine×Licensed DSP infrastructure or resold inventory.✓Annika: 25+ years of TV buying productized, across linear and streaming.
Defensibility×Feature war among look-alike platforms competing on price floors.✓Distribution lock through the platform relationship. The deal itself is the moat.
04 · The Deal Structure

Three rungs, one ladder

Do not open by asking Shopify for a strategic partnership. Open by shipping on the surfaces Shopify already built for partners, then convert proof into preference. Each rung de-risks the next.

Start here
RUNG 1

App Store wedge

SHIPPABLE WITHOUT PERMISSION · MONTHS 1 TO 4

Launch the Misfits TV app in the Shopify App Store: OAuth install, catalog and pixel sync, LoRA creative generation, Annika-managed buying. Standard published terms apply, 0% to Shopify on the first $1M, 15% above.3 This requires zero BD approval and creates the data that powers every later conversation.

RUNG 2

Embedded surface

PARTNER-TEAM DEAL · MONTHS 4 TO 9

Graduate from "an app" to "the TV channel": placement in the admin marketing surface alongside email and social, co-marketing through the partner program's technology track,4 and deeper attribution hooks (orders as conversion ground truth). This is where Jordan's partner motion and pilot evidence carry the room.

RUNG 3

Strategic LOI

EXEC-SPONSORED · MONTHS 9 TO 12

A signed LOI making Misfits the preferred TV layer for Shopify merchants: negotiated rev-share, joint GTM and launch moment, roadmap commitments on both sides. Precedent exists, Shopify already did a TV deal with Roku on the supply side in 2023.10 This is the demand-side twin.

What Shopify gets

  • A new high-margin revenue line: 15% of an embedded media business it does not have to build or operate
  • Merchant GMV growth: TV is incremental demand on top of saturated, ever-pricier Meta and Google auctions
  • Retention and stickiness: a channel a merchant cannot take to WooCommerce
  • The category headline: "Shopify makes TV a performance channel for every merchant," before Amazon or Wix get there

What Misfits gets

  • Distribution at near-zero CAC to millions of ad-active merchants behind one integration
  • Commerce ground truth: order-level attribution data that makes Annika smarter with every campaign
  • The defensible position: competitors must out-feature each other; Misfits holds the surface
  • A repeatable playbook for GoDaddy, Wix, ServiceTitan, Jobber, Toast, and the rest of the Tier 1 map

Pilot scope & success metrics (Rung 1 to Rung 2 bridge)

Cohort
50 to 100 merchants, two verticals (apparel, home), $50K+ monthly Meta/Google spend
Duration & media
90 days, $250K to $500K total managed media
Activation metrics
Install-to-live-campaign under 1 hour; creative accepted without edits >70%
Performance metrics
Blended ROAS vs. merchant's Meta benchmark; month-2 retention >60%; documented case studies for the partner-team pitch
05 · The First Conversation

Who to call, and what to say

Shopify reorganizes often, so target functions, not names, and enter through more than one door at once. Four entry points, ranked by speed to a real decision.

ENTRY 1 · FASTEST YES

Partner Development, Technology Track

Shopify's partner program runs explicit technology go-to-market tracks with performance tiers.4 This team's job is to find apps that grow merchant GMV. A TV app with auto-generated creative is exactly what they promote. Gets Rung 1 listed, supported, and co-marketed.

ENTRY 2 · THE DEAL OWNER

Director / Lead, Strategic Partnerships (Ads & Marketing Tech)

The function that structured the Roku and Criteo-class deals. They own the question "what should TV mean for Shopify merchants" and are the eventual counterparty for the Rung 3 LOI. Jordan's peer. This is the relationship to start warming in month one.

ENTRY 3 · THE SURFACE OWNER

Product Lead, Shopify Marketing & App Ecosystem

Owns the admin marketing surface and developer platform where channels live. Decides what becomes a native channel card versus a buried app listing. Win them with pilot activation data, especially time-to-first-campaign.

ENTRY 4 · AIR COVER

Merchant Growth / GMV Initiatives

Teams accountable for merchant success metrics. TV as incremental demand is a GMV story, and GMV is the number Shopify reports to the street every quarter.1 Use this lens in every exec-level summary.

DRAFT OPENER · TO: STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS, ADS & MARKETING TECH · FROM: MISFITS & MACHINES

Hi [name], in 2023 Shopify became the checkout inside Roku's TV ads. We want to build the other half: TV as a channel your merchants buy from inside Shopify.

We're Misfits & Machines, the product incubator of Marketing Architects, a 25-year TV agency. Our stack does the two things that have always kept SMBs off TV: our AI (Annika) plans and buys linear and streaming like a performance channel, and our LoRA creative models generate on-brand TV spots from a merchant's own storefront in minutes. No agency, no shoot, no $10K minimum.

SMBs are the fastest-growing CTV buyer segment and 62% of those advertising on CTV last year had never run TV before. Your merchants are doing this anyway, just outside your ecosystem. We'd rather they do it inside it, with Shopify taking a share of every dollar.

We're launching in the App Store regardless. The question is whether Shopify wants this to be a listing or a channel. 20 minutes to show you the merchant flow and the pilot results?

[Sender], Misfits & Machines · a Marketing Architects company

06 · The Path To LOI

Twelve months, mapped to the role itself

The Head of Growth & Marketing mandate phases as systems and landscape (months 1 to 3), economics and strategy (months 4 to 6), and the first partnership LOI (months 7 to 12). Here is the Shopify deal laid directly onto that cadence, with the year-one bonus milestone visible at the end.

Phase 1 · Months 1 to 3 · Systems + Landscape

Days 0 to 90: build the machine, open the doors

Days 0 to 30: lock the partner thesis and ICP, stand up the pipeline system (CRM, sequences, the AnalyzeLens-style monitoring already running for this search), and map warm paths into Shopify's partner org through agency alumni, top app developers, and the Roku deal's alumni network. Days 30 to 60: spec the Misfits TV app with a working LoRA creative demo on three real merchant brands; first conversation with Partner Development. Days 60 to 90: pilot design doc and this economics model in front of the technology-track team. The 90-day output is not a deck, it is a live deal conversation.

MILESTONE: App listed, pilot cohort recruiting, two Shopify threads live
Phase 2 · Months 4 to 6 · Economics + Strategy

Prove it with merchant data

Run the 50 to 100 merchant pilot through the App Store wedge. Weekly performance readouts against the success metrics above. Convert results into the two assets that move platform deals: merchant case studies (ROAS vs. Meta benchmark, time-to-first-campaign) and a Shopify-side revenue model showing their 15% cut at scale. Begin the Rung 2 conversation: placement in the marketing surface, co-marketing, attribution hooks. Parallel-path GoDaddy and Wix conversations to create credible alternatives and deal tension.

MILESTONE: Pilot ROAS proven, Rung 2 negotiation opened, second platform in dialogue
Phase 3 · Months 7 to 12 · First LOI

Convert proof into preference

Bring pilot evidence to the Strategic Partnerships deal owner with exec air cover from the GMV lens. Negotiate the LOI: preferred TV layer status, embedded placement, negotiated rev-share, joint launch moment timed to a Shopify Editions release. The role's year-one bonus milestone is a signed first-partnership LOI by month 12. With the wedge shipped in Phase 1 and merchant proof in Phase 2, the LOI is a conversion event, not a cold ask.

MILESTONE: SIGNED LOI, MONTH 12. The year-one bonus target, de-risked by month 3.
07 · Sources & Methodology

Every number, accounted for

Verified factsFigures with footnotes are drawn from company filings, published developer terms, funding announcements, and industry forecasts, accessed June 2026. Where third-party estimates are used (e.g., store counts Shopify no longer discloses), they are labeled as estimates.
Modeled assumptionsAttach rate, platform margin, and steady-state framing in the economics model are projections, clearly labeled in the input-provenance table, with stated rationale and conservative ranges. No fabricated precision: outputs are functions of the labeled inputs only.
  1. Shopify Inc., Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 results (SEC EDGAR 8-K filings): FY2025 GMV ~$378B, FY2025 revenue ~$11.6B, Q1 2026 GMV over $100B.Fact
  2. DemandSage / ecommerce trackers, Shopify statistics 2026: ~5M+ estimated live stores globally, ~2.6M US; Shopify reports "millions of merchants" in 175+ countries and stopped disclosing counts in 2021.Third-party estimate
  3. Shopify developer documentation, revenue share and changelog: 0% on first $1M lifetime app revenue from Jan 1, 2025; 15% above; large developers pay 15% on all.Fact
  4. Shopify partner ecosystem: 21,000+ apps in the App Store, ~100,000 partners; partner program technology go-to-market tracks and performance tiers (2025 to 2026 program updates).Fact
  5. eMarketer on MNTN's IPO (May 2025) and AdExchanger: 96% SMB customer base, ~2,225 Performance TV customers in 2024, client count +89% YoY Q1 2025; $10K to $20K/mo recommended spend per G2/industry reviews.Fact
  6. Vibe.co pricing documentation and funding coverage: no minimums, ~$50/day floor, CPMs $15 to $30; $22.5M Series A (2024), $50M follow-on, ~$410M valuation.Fact
  7. VideoWeek, tvScientific $25.5M Series B (Feb 2025) and Digiday on Pinterest's acquisition interest: Roku participation, ~$57M total raised, no-minimum cost-per-outcome model.Fact
  8. eMarketer US CTV forecasts and IAB via StreamTV Insider: ~$38B US CTV ad spend in 2026 (roughly 14% growth from $33.35B in 2025), CTV to pass linear TV by 2028.Fact
  9. IAB 2025 Video Ad Spend & Strategy Report (via AdWave SMB TV report): SMBs the fastest-growing CTV buyer segment; 62% of SMBs running CTV in 2025 were first-time TV advertisers; SMBs reallocating 15 to 20% of digital budgets to CTV.Fact
  10. TechCrunch, Roku x Shopify Action Ads (July 2023) and Retail TouchPoints on Roku Ads Manager: shoppable TV checkout for Shopify merchants via Roku Pay. Supply-side precedent; no native demand product inside Shopify.Fact
  11. Business Wire, April 17, 2025: Marketing Architects, with Misfits & Machines, builds custom LoRA models that generate brand-consistent, high-quality TV video, compressing traditional production timelines.Fact